The NYISO said that while finding that all reliability needs have been satisfied on the bulk power system, the 2016 plan notes that reliability margins could change over the study period – 2017-2026 – based upon changes in assumptions and other possible risk factors, such as changes in generation and transmission resources available to the electric system.
According to the 2016 plan, the 2016 reliability needs assessment is the first step of the NYISO reliability planning process, and the NYISO initiated the 2016 plan after its board approved the 2016 RNA last October.
Using the 2016 RNA base case developed in accordance with the NYISO’s procedures, the RNA assessed the resource adequacy and transmission security of the New York State bulk power transmission facilities from 2017 through 2026.
As an initial step, the 2016 plan added, the NYISO provided preliminary results to stakeholders and sought material updates that could address the preliminary reliability needs. The NYISO received and included in the RNA base case these network updates, which led to the elimination of a number of initially identified reliability needs:
· New York State Electric and Gas (NYSEG)/Rochester Gas & Electric’s (RGE) terminal upgrades, now in service, increased the ratings on the Stolle Road-Gardenville 230-kV Line #66, thus eliminating a post-contingency overload
· NYSEG/RGE’s terminal upgrades, planned to be in service by 2019, increase the ratings on the Clay-Pannell PC1 and PC2 345-kV lines
The 2016 plan added that the 2016 RNA found no resource adequacy violations, but identified two transmission security reliability needs beginning in 2017: the NYSEG Oakdale 345/115-kV transformer, and the Long Island Lighting Co. d/b/a Long Island Power Authority (LIPA) East Garden City to Valley Stream 138-kV line.
The 2016 plan noted that following completion of the 2016 RNA, and in response to the NYISO’s request for updates to local transmission owner plans that may impact the identified reliability needs, the NYISO received these updates from NYSEG and LIPA:
· NYSEG’s LTPs address the Oakdale reliability need by adding a third Oakdale 345/115-kV transformer and reconfiguring the Oakdale substation by 2021. Operating procedures will be used to maintain the system’s security until the Oakdale upgrades are in service. Those operating procedures include the use of any available special case resources, pre-planning for timely clearing of stuck breaker conditions, and possible load shedding, as needed, up to 25 MW following the N-1-1 contingency during summer peak conditions
· LIPA’s LTPs address the East Garden City to Valley Stream Reliability Need by using non-consequential load loss under N-1-1 conditions
The NYISO incorporated those updates into the 2016 plan base case, and with those updates, concluded that the two reliability needs are eliminated, and that there is no need to solicit solutions under the 2016 plan process.
Further discussing the 2016 Reliability Planning Process findings, the 2016 plan also noted that substantial uncertainties exist in the next 10 years that will impact the system resources, including that:
· The New York State Public Service Commission has confirmed the existence of three public policy transmission needs: Western New York, AC Transmission Segment A (Central East), and AC Transmission Segment B (UPNY-SENY). The NYISO is evaluating the transmission proposals to select the more efficient or cost-effective solutions to those needs. The construction of additional transmission capacity in those areas would address existing transmission constraints and generally increase the reliability of the system
· The 2016 RNA and plan base cases include more than 1,000 MW of assumed generation additions in various planning stages, and more than 3,100 MW of assumed deactivations. If expected capacity resources do not materialize, the New York Control Area (NYCA) resource adequacy margin – as measured by comparison with the loss of load expectation criterion of 0.1 days per year – will decrease
· While the 2016 RNA did not find any resource adequacy needs over the 10-year study period, Entergy and New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo have since announced that they have reached an agreement to close Indian Point 2 and 3 by 2020 and 2021, respectively. The NYISO will address that issue through its Generator Deactivation Process when it receives a generator deactivation notice for the Indian Point units, and through the 2018 RNA
· If additional generating units become unavailable or deactivate beyond those units already contemplated in the 2016 RNA, the reliability of the NYCA BPTF could be adversely affected. The scenarios performed as part of the RNA demonstrated that the deactivation of generators in particular areas of the state, including western and central New York, the Capital Region, and southeast New York, could lead to resource adequacy needs, transmission security violations, and otherwise reduce transmission transfer capabilities
· In the 2016 RNA and plan base cases, the R.E. Ginna nuclear power plant and the FitzPatrick nuclear power plant are assumed to be out of service in accordance with NYISO procedures. Based upon updated information on the status of those units, it appears that they may continue to operate for some period of time, which will contribute to an increase in the reliability margin of the system
Among other things, the 2016 plan listed several recommendations, including a call to monitor and track transmission owner plans. To provide for the system’s long-term reliability and minimize reliance on interim operating procedures in the western and central areas of New York, the transmission owners need to complete the projects identified in their LTPs on schedule and as planned. The NYISO will continue to monitor the completion of the identified projects and the progress of LTPs as they relate to the reliability needs initially identified in the RNA, the 2016 plan added.